Page 221 - 《社会》2021年第3期

社会·2021·3

explore the impact of macro鄄family policies on micro鄄fertility decision鄄making in fifteen
European countries. Our research emphasizes the importance of theoretical perspective
and focuses on the specific policy measures that are related to the two distinctively
different policy values of “family-oriented” and “de鄄family鄄oriented”. The empirical
results find that the “de鄄family鄄oriented” childcare services have a significant positive
impact on the birth decisions of European families，while the “family鄄oriented” cash
subsidies have not produced the expected significant effect. This study further examines
the differential impact of family policies on different groups of people，focusing on the
effects of gender，age，education，and income. The results reveal that couples of younger
age or higher incomes are most affected on birth decisions by childcare services. This
study also verifies the robustness of the data and introduces into the model additional
variables such as the allocation ratio of childcare services and cash subsidies，their
proportion in GDP，and paid leave. It reveals that childcare services and paid maternity
leave form a policy synergy in promoting family reproductive decision鄄making to a
certain extent. This suggests that the effectiveness of European family policy for
promoting fertility lies on the changes in service delivery of childcare，rather than on
direct cash subsidy. There is a policy implication for China’s future family policy. Our
future emphasis should be placed on the institutional design and resource investment in
infant and child care services.
Keywords：family policy，fertility effect，cash subsidy，childcare service

一、引言

在全球出生率下降的背景下， 以鼓励生育为主的家庭政策能否影
响以及如何影响生育行为引起了学界的广泛关注 （ Kalwij，2010；Luci-
Greulich and Thévenon，2013；张秀兰、徐月宾，2003）。 在全球范围内，欧
洲是率先进入“低生育率陷阱”的地区，早在 20 世纪八九十年代，一些
欧洲国家的总和生育率就降到了 1.5 以下（Bongaarts，2002）。 与此同时，
现代家庭政策体系为人口再生产注入了外部的推动力量， 成为这些国
家摆脱低生育率的重要手段。 作为现代福利制度的发源地，欧洲国家推
行 带 薪 休 假 权 利 （ paid leave entitlement）、 儿 童 照 料 服 务（childcare
service）和财政转移支付（financial transfer）等配套的家庭政策，通过国家

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