Page 195 - 《社会》2023年第3期

社会·2023·3

and gender differences in childbearing motivation by asking respondents why they
should have children. Based on data from the China Family Panel Studies（CFPS）
in 2020， this study uses cluster analysis to classify people’s childbearing
motivation into four categories：“low intention and negative”， “individual鄄
oriented”，“dual鄄oriented emotional” and“family鄄oriented”. The result shows that
more than half of Chinese residents still have family鄄oriented motivation of
childbearing while individual -oriented and dual鄄oriented emotional motivation
account for 23% and 15% respectively. Only 9% of the residents have low
intention and negative childbearing motivation. Moreover， there are significant
inter鄄cohort differences in childbearing motivations. Earlier birth cohorts are more
likely to have dual鄄oriented emotional， family鄄oriented motivations; while younger
birth cohorts are more likely to have low intention and negative， individual鄄oriented
motivations. Among the post鄄80s and post鄄90s groups， family鄄oriented motivations
of childbearing gradually lose their dominance， while individual鄄oriented
motivations increase significantly. In terms of gender differences， men’s
childbearing motivations are more traditional than women’s， and the extent of
inter鄄cohort change is smaller for men. The differences in childbearing motivation
between men and women tend to widen among later generations. The study suggests
changes in educational attainment as a possible explanation.
Keywords：childbearing motivation， cohort， gender， education

一、 问题的提出

中国当前的低生育率问题已成为一个公认的事实。 2021 年 5 月发
布的第七次全国人口普查数据表明，2020 年中国育龄妇女总和生育率
1
仅为 1.3， 已处于较低生育率水平。 国家统计局最新发布的数据显示，
2022 年末全国人口比上年末减少 85 万人， 人口自然增长率为-0.60‰。 2
这是新中国成立以来正常时期中国人口首次出现由低出生率低于低死

1. 数据来源：“第七次全国人口普查主要数据结果新闻发布会答记者提问”， 国家统计
局（http://www.stats.gov.cn/xxgk/jd/sjjd2020/202105/t20210511_1817280.html，访问时间：2022
年 5 月）。
2. 数据来源：《中华人民共和国 2022 年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》（http://www.gov.
cn/xinwen/2023-02/28/content_5743623.htm，访问时间：2023 年 4 月）。

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