Page 95 - 《社会》2021年第2期

社会·2021·2

However， in modern society， with the improvement in education and labor participation
for both sexes， especially when the cost of living makes it difficult to support family by
one income， the delaying effect of education level on marriage may have changed. This
study suggests the possible moderating effect of local hukou（residential registration）as
a symbol of financial advantage on the relation between education and marriage. Based
on the data from the Shanghai Urban Neighborhood Survey， this paper attempts to
answer three questions: 1） Does a Shanghai hukou moderate the delaying effect of
education on marriage timing？ 2） If so， is there a gender difference of this
moderation； 3）Does this moderation change overtime？ The results of a discrete event
history analysis show that the higher the education level， the more obvious its
postponement effect on marriage， especially for women. Regardless of men and women，
compared with individuals with Shanghai hukou， the delaying effect of education on
marriage is much more prominent among people without Shanghai hukou. The study
finds that at the early stage of the economic reform， there was no obvious moderation
effect of a Shanghai hukou. However， with the continuous advancement of the reform，
the postponement effect of education on marriage has become more and more prominent
among groups without Shanghai hukou. Interestingly， the soaring price of housing since
2008 has led to a reversed relation between education and marriage timing among highly
educated male Shanghai hukou holders. In comparison with their counter part of non-
Shanghai hukou holders， not only no postponement but a certain early marriage effect is
observed. The study concludes that the rapid rising cost of living and the widening gap
in income and wealth have made hukou a primary factor in shaping marriage behaviors
in contemporary urban China.
Keywords：education ， local hukou ， first marriage timing ， Shanghai ， Discrete 鄄
time event history analysis

一、引言

作为家庭构成的基础，婚姻一直是社会学关注的重点问题之一。 婚
姻的建立往往与当下的性别角色期待相关。 基于传统的“男主外、女主
内”的性别意识形态，在配偶选择上，男性更在意配偶的外貌和年龄，女
性则更关注配偶的社会资源和社会地位（Buss， 1989，1991； Fletcher，et
al.， 2004；Fisman，et al.， 2006； Kalmijn， 2011）。 而个体所获得的社会

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