Page 139 - 《社会》2025年第4期

社会·2025·4

applies a conditional decomposition method to estimate the structural contribution of
marital status to changes in fertility levels among women of reproductive age. In
addition，it incorporates provincial鄄level panel data to examine regional
heterogeneity in the relationship between marriage and fertility. The results show
that although the overall structure of marital status remained stable over the past
three decades，the structural contribution of marital status to fertility change has
increased significantly once age and education are controlled for. The effect is more
pronounced in urban areas，though rural areas also display a steadily rising trend.
Findings from provincial panel analyses further indicate that the explanatory power
of marital status is closely associated with regional socioeconomic development，and
that the interaction between shifts in marital structure and fertility norms varies
across provinces.
Theoretically，this study engages with the ongoing debate over the applicability
of the Second Demographic Transition （SDT） theory in the Chinese context. By
foregrounding institutional and structural dimensions，this study extends global
demographic theories to non鄄Western contexts and contributes to the construction of
a localized theoretical framework for understanding Chinese fertility behaviors. It
highlights the persistent misalignment between structural inertia and shifting fertility
values，offering a new lens to explain the persistence of the lowest fertility rates in
China.
Keywords：fertility levels，marital status，social changes，decomposition

一、 问题的提出

适度生育水平是人口长期均衡发展的关键，应对“少子化”问题已
经成为当前中国人口与社会政策调整的重要关注点。 20 世纪 60 年代
以来，在经济社会发展和人口政策的共同推动下，中国迅速完成生育转
变 ， 并 在 21 世 纪 初 进 入 稳 定 低 生 育 水 平 阶 段 （解 振 明 ，2012；Cai，
2010）。 一方面，基于人口学范式的研究深入探讨了低生育水平形成的
结构性因素，指出育龄女性规模变化、婚育推迟以及家庭结构变迁在很
大程度上解释了生育转变以来生育水平的持续下降 （李月、 张许颖，
2021；陈卫、刘金菊，2021）；另一方面，也有学者从社会发展的角度剖析
生育意愿变化的社会机制， 强调降低生育成本和完善生育支持政策体
系是提振生育水平的关键（宋健、胡波，2022；蔡韦成、谢宇，2024）。

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